Prime Minister Krill Serbin will begin negotiations with members of the Federal Assembly this afternoon, in an attempt to form a new government.
Serbin, 56, led his party to secure the most amount of seats in the lower-house at yesterday’s national elections, but has failed to win an outright majority. The Prime Minister won 82 seats in the 170 seat Assembly, falling four short of the 86 required to secure victory. The Union Party, led by President Ivan Tattar and former Preaisk state representative Janoslav Csoňka, finished just four seats behind Serbin’s Progressive Centrist Party – which has been known as The Coalition since 2017 – and also won a second term to the presidency after claiming large gains across the country. Unionist sources are still claiming it is possible for the party to form a government in the lower house – saying that “anything could happen” once the final results are certified. The Nationalist Party won just four seats, whilst independent candidates claimed five and the Communitarian Workers’ Party returned to the Federal Executive for the first time since 2013 after winning one. A potential second term in office for Mr Serbin is now dependent on his ability to agree a deal with any number of these individuals given that the Coalition had already ruled out any sort of agreement to co-govern with the Unionists.
Nationalist leader Alexei Sukhorukov is yet to make a statement on the official results, but those close to the party say that it is also ‘unlikely’ any representatives would take up seats in the lower house after the group boycotted the election. Despite their stance, the party was not able to be removed from the ballot – creating a split between Sukhorukov and his deputy, Drakan Slivinski, who wanted to contest the elections. Slivinski and several other members campaigned heavily, trying to secure reelection. Losing 14 seats, but retaining four, the party also lost its three representatives in the Federal Council – with the Union Party and Coalition both gaining seats. The Unionists increased their majority by two, with Ivan Tattar remaining as president after comprehensively beating former Foreign Minister Dimochka Yakushkin in the final vote, 53% to 39%. The Nationalists won just 5.1% in the popular vote for the presidency – down dramatically from the 31% they won in the run-off against Tattar in 2019. The party now faces fracture as it deals with ongoing investigations and a potential criminal trial into voter fraud last month.
Coalition legislators and party grandees have urged the Prime Minister to rule out any deal with the Nationalists – but several individuals close to Serbin say he is more ‘open’ to a conversation with Slivinski, who is now likely to be seen as the de-facto leader of the party following the results of the election. A deal with the party could give the Prime Minister a majority, but such a move would be highly controversial and likely to cause a split within his own ranks. Much more likely is Serbin governing as a minority government, with the backing of individual members of the Assembly on key votes – enough to continue in office. Such an arrangement however would leave the Prime Minister at the behest of just a handful of Assembly members – and would require incredible discipline from his own party. It would also run counter to Serbin’s “security and stability” messaging which he has adopted since becoming Prime Minister several years ago. However, the mathematics remain just as difficult for the Union Party – only able to rely on the CWP to provide one additional seat – meaning it would need seven more to get close to a majority in the assembly. As a result, the country may need to prepare for further elections in an attempt to break the deadlock, either immediately or over the coming months.
