Prime Minister Krill Serbin is “fighting for his political life” as voters head to the polls in the country’s first simultaneous presidential and legislative elections in 20 years on Friday. After a lacklustre campaign, where the Prime Minister’s Centrist Progressive Conservative coalition has been caught off-guard by a resurgent Unionist Party led by President Tattar, Serbin is facing criticism from his caucus colleagues who claim he has “lost control of the campaign and the party”.
“The Prime Minister came into this campaign late, unprepared and complacent. But somehow, is still just about in the fight” commented PTV anchor Jov Chaykovsky last night opening a special edition of ‘The Big Interview’ – Polasciana’s biggest weekly TV show. “Now battling for his political life, having become Prime Minister just three years ago – he now faces his biggest test.” The ailing leader has spent days trying to revive his fortunes by focusing on the high-stakes must-win states of his hometown Kamchetka and neighbouring Preaisk and Béspura, but is considered to be trailing the Unionist leaders – President Tattar and Preaisk state representative Janoslav Csoňka, both of whom have been touring the country for the past few months and are being seen as a highly effective team.
Turnout is also expected to hit an all-time low, collapsing even further from the 65% recorded at the 2019 presidential election – down from over 82% in 2011. “This election is just being seen as unnecessary by many voters who feel like neither of the parties are really listening to their concerns. A huge decrease in support for the Nationalist Party is also driving many to stay at home. As an electoral force they had really driven people who had never voted before to come out last time, but the party is failing to generate the same kind of interest this time round. We could see turnout go below 60% – a potentially really worrying sign” said a guest on Chaykovsky’s show last night.
Unionist premiership pick Csoňka is trying to reverse the current trajectory of the campaign – evoking a late sense of enthusiasm for what he describes as “get it done politics”. Speaking at a campaign meeting in his home state of Preaisk, the state representative told the crowd “there is an opportunity here to move from a politics of division and gridlock, to a get it done kind of politics where we actually make a difference on the big issues. That is what I’ve done here in Preaisk. I’ve worked with people of all parties, but most importantly we’ve got stuff done. If we can do it here, we can do it in Karasciena and I want to be a real partner to President Tattar. We can do it together. We can get it done.”
The upstart energetic approach of the Unionist campaign has been in particular contrast to the more controlled and top-down approach by the Coalition. Serbin’s presidential pick in former foreign minister Dimochka Yakushkin has had limited effect, by the Prime Minister’s decision to focus on placing himself as the lead candidate in the joint elections – claiming Yakushkin would ‘remodel the presidency as a ceremonial elder statesman’ rather than a traditional policy-making leader, such as those who have gone before. Whilst seen as an asset to Mr Serbin initially, the approach has backfired, with many deeming Yakushkin’s campaign appearances as “pointless”.
“As an experienced former government minister, you would want him out there batting for your team, but instead the Prime Minister has cut away his legs and made Yakushkin totally irrelevant to the campaign. It’s the exact opposite of what he needs right now – with the former foreign minister looking like a spare part as the team breaks down around him” cried one party insider. “The simple fact is the Prime Minister has run this campaign disastrously on all fronts – and made the Union Party look unified, and ready to lead. He can still win enough seats to form a government, but the presidential election is gone. Tattar will stay as President – so the question now is, can the Prime Minister form a government to keep the status quo?”
Other commentators have been kinder to Yakushkin who they say has played a ‘calming’ role within the campaign and offers a ‘genuine choice’ to voters. He is seen as particularly useful to the party in countering claims it had not learnt the lessons from its two previous defeats under Marina Yanaka and Katrina Fischer. “Yakushkin simply says, we heard you, you want someone who gives you a sense of safety and security. It’s a neat message when combined with Serbin. That’s the campaign message – safety and security. So why not have a safe and secure candidate for president. It’s not a mistake, it’s a major asset.”
The Yakushkin team, close supporters of the Prime Minister, say “everything is to play for” and they are fighting hard to make inroads into key campaign focus areas and targets, including winning back state representatives lost to the Nationalists in Yevcimir and Chimsk.
“Whilst Tattar will likely win reelection easily, the numbers don’t necessarily work for the Unionists when it comes to trying to form a government. Alexei Sukhorukov and the Nationalists may provide some help there if they can hold on. A swing back to the Coalition will all but end Csoňka’s hope of forming a government” said election specialist Boža Lalić, a political studies lecturer at the Amar State University in Arvi. “The Unionists need to find around ten seats in the Assembly if they want to take control – that’s a tall ask, given the Coalition won a good set at the last set of elections and are on track to still make gains.” The Union Party is expected to lose several seats in Kamchetka due to political circumstances – including a scandal surrounding former presidential candidate Stepan Michalvich.
“The Michalvich scandal will hurt the Unionists – they need every seat they can take but definitely go into this election already likely having lost one or two in places where they’d need to gain. The most likely scenario is that they may deprive the Prime Minister of a majority, but what happens then is anybody’s guess. It will all come down to whether the Nationalists can hold on in some parts of the country – if they prevent a Coalition increase in places like Yevcimir then the Unionists may be able to form some sort of government.”
Campaigning formally ends tomorrow, with voters heading to the polls on Friday. Results are likely to be declared over the weekend, with an expected winner of both the legislative and presidential results by next week.
