The Nationalist Party leader Valeriya Dashkov announced this weekend that she will not seek the presidency for a third time. Dashkov, who rocked the political establishment four years ago by finishing a surprising third place in the 2015 race, released a statement calling for ‘new blood’ to lead the party into November’s presidential election where many expect the Nationalists to pose a major challenge to the established parties – having recently completed a merger with the insurgent Unity movement. Prompted by polls which pointed to a combined nationalist force being better able to reach the run-off stage of a presidential tie, the merger of the two nationalist entities came after protracted negotiations concluded after some two years. The new entity, formally the Nationalist Unity Party, is likely to be joined by some elements of the ailing United Nationalist Democrats by the summer.
In standing aside, Dashkov is expected to enable former Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Sukhorukov to take the helm as the party’s candidate in an election. Mr Sukhorokov, previously a cabinet minister under Koruin Gruaman, left the governing party and joined the Freedom Front backed ‘Unity Movement’ in the run up to the 2015 presidential vote – having previously created a conservative faction within Ludvig Fedorov’s reshaped Centrist Progressive party at the 2013 legislative elections. Despite the three major nationalist entities running against each other in national elections since 2013, the Nationalist Party under Dashkov defied expectations and placed third in the 2015 presidential poll, whilst Unity gained a number of key seats in the lower-house at the legislative elections in both 2013 and 2018. Many now fear a unified nationalist force may achieve substantially better results – potentially being able to challenge for the presidency in a run-off should one of the major parties fail to win a majority in the first round.
The United Nationalist Democrats, Polasciana’s moderate nationalist faction, has declined rapidly and is no longer the third biggest force in national politics. Its leader, Tymur Rubin, has struggled to keep the party relevant as debates have raged internally as to how to manage and respond to more hard-line nationalist campaigns. After two successive disastrous electoral performances over the past five years, Rubin is expected to stand down prior to the November election, with the party expected to split as a result.
With the Union Party still in disarray over its candidate for the upcoming race, and with the Centrist Progressive Conservative coalition wavering over a potential coronation of Governor Katrina Fischer of Béspura as its nominee, speculation and expectations are continuing to build in relation to the Nationalist campaign. Many believe that if Fischer, a member of Polasciana’s Noric minority, is chosen as the Coalition candidate, and should the Unionists not come to a decision soon regarding their candidate, that the chances of a run-off vote may be much higher and potentially could allow the Nationalists to take advantage of a particularly unpredictable political landscape and make an unprecedented bid for the presidency.
The Nationalist Party was created alongside many other political entities that contested Polasciana’s first elections held in 2003 but has since found itself dubbed an extreme organisation that promotes racist ideology and incites ethnic hatred towards minorities.
Lev Gauk served as the party’s first leader, becoming popular in many northern states, supported by his loyal deputy Erik Lenhart. Dashkov took over as deputy leader in early 2009 and became party leader in 2011 – leading the party to gain seats in the Federal Council and later winning several Deputy races in the Assembly. By 2015 the party had become the third biggest political force in Polasciana. Both Gauk and Dashkov were leading opponents of the Democratic Movement in Saracia.
Dashkov is now expected to resign the party leadership in the coming weeks, a pledge she previously made when Unity folded into the growing combined movement at the end of last year. Under the terms of the deal, Unity and the Nationalists will run in elections as a consolidated entity, with Sukhorukov expected to take over the reigns at the top of the unified party – potentially unchallenged in the coming weeks.
