The next part in our in-depth series looking at the runners and riders in the race to succeed President Artamova centres around potential candidates from the Progressives – looking to win back the presidency for the first time since 2003 – and looking for a new candidate for the first time in over 10 years. Former Prime Minister and President Koruin Gruaman served as the party’s nominee in the 2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential races – standing against Stepan Michalvich, President Pavel Lukyanov and President Artamova. Gruaman’s legacy stands tall over the potential candidates – with pressure on many to stand on his record or walk away from it. The man himself has yet to declare his hand in supporting a candidate but has gone so far as saying he “hopes” his former Prime Minister and close ally, Marina Yanaka stands; a statement that may hinder rather than help her bid.
The Progressive Centrists face a difficult election whoever they select as their candidate – having not won the presidency since 2003 and failing to win the 2013 legislative elections outright, clutching onto power thanks to a number of independents; they have never won an election majority without Koruin Gruaman on the ballot in a national election. However a poll this weekend saw the race at this stage more open than many had predicted, yet with no officially declared candidates for the Centrists. The closest they have come to an announcement has been Marina Yanaka, the former Prime Minister saying the candidate would be “up to the voters” – suggesting she views a primary style election the most likely option to find the party’s candidate. The Union Party held a similar election between Stepan Michalvich and Gennadiy Artamova in 2011. Should they hold that election, we look at some of the most likely candidates who have the potential to form and run a national campaign in the run up to next years election.
A number of Progressive figures have suggested and hinted at runs in the past as well as some who are regarded highly by their party leadership and have the capacity and name recognition to run;
Marina Yanaka
The former Prime Minister is seen as the most likely candidate from the Progressive field to take on President Artamova. Yanaka is the most well known out of the potential runners and has a vast network of supporters and donors who could help bank-roll and run a primary campaign and support her national election. Having served as Prime Minister since 2003 until 2007 Marina Yanaka is no novice in the spotlight. She went on to serve as First Deputy Prime Minister from 2008 until 2011 under her mentor and close ally Koruin Gruaman, stepping aside for him to run as Prime Minister.
Many believe that Gruaman has pledged to support her due to the closeness between the two of them – although many regard her as too close to Gruaman to be able to break out of his legacy and his leadership of the Centrists for the past 11 years. Her time as a member of the Council and Foreign Minister are seen as crucial experience – but will her links with Gruaman motivate others to stand against her. She is regarded as having the best chance of capturing the presidency from Artamova in 2015.
Ludvig Fedorov
A man who is said to find himself ‘lucky’ to be where he is has shown no willingness to run for President, but should Yanaka choose not to stand he may be called upon to run. Koruin Gruaman ultimately ran for president last time around whilst still Prime Minister, but should he lose Fedorov would likely see an end to his premiership just as Gruaman did in 2011. Having taken over from Gruaman after his resignation and unchallenged for the leadership at that time, it’s unlikely Fedorov will want to follow a similar path. Close friends of the Prime Minister have suggested he was overwhelmed when Gruaman initially promoted him to foreign minister in early 2011. His rise was seen as meteoric – and became Prime Minister within months. His name recognition and experience alone make him a viable candidate, but many consider he just doesn’t want it. It’s likely Fedorov will wish to stay as Prime Minister for at least another term – hoping to play a strong role in delivering a Progressive mandate.
Dimochka Yakushkin
Another former Foreign Minister is also considered a worthy candidate. The 58 year old Amar born Yakushkin fits the bill as a party elder with considerable experience and enough allies to support him should he run. Yakushkin was an early supporter of candidates who stood apart from the Gruaman leadership and has been known to have bankrolled several candidates attempts at displacing the former leader. Yakushkin is widely admired for his role between 2008 and 2011 as Foreign Minister under President Lukyanov – which presented many challenges for the Centrist minister. His successful campaigns for Assembly Representative of Gorodok in Amar won him many plaudits – winning by huge margins in the state he was born. Many have been reported to try to coax him to run for Governor against Fyodor Shchavelev, the controversial Union Party Governor. His close friends and allies suggest he has a long-held desire to hold the presidency, but feels he may be better suited to running in 2019. A close confident of Yakushkin has suggested it may be too late if he doesn’t stand this time. He could stand on the anti-Gruaman/Yanaka ticket and force a primary.
Katrina Fischer
For the past two elections Béspura has voted for the winner in the presidential race but also voted for Governor Katrina Fischer. Elected firstly in 2007 she has been a popular figure in the state and nationally where her pro-business, pro-immigration stances have won her many plaudits. She bucked the national trend for the Progressives in the state and managed to win re-election with a comfortable majority in 2011, whilst the state voted for Artamova in the presidential race. Many strategists have predicted that once again Béspura will be a pivotal state in the next presidential election and many Progressives believe with Fischer running the state would be almost assured to be won by them in large margins which they believe could seal them the election. Fischer has not yet announced whether she intends to stand for a third term as governor, many believing she is waiting to analyse the 2015 field for president. She has many positives and represents a clear break from the Gruaman/Yanaka and brings outside experience as a Governor. But many are worried that turbulent scenes in Amar and an anti-Centrican feeling in eastern states may hamper Noric-descendant born Fischer’s chances at the general election. She may wait, rather than risk it.
