The governor of Amar, Taras Illyushin, has reportedly told close friends and aides that he is ‘genuinely undecided’ about whether to seek the presidency in 2027.
A perceived front-runner for the role when incumbent President Tattar will be forced to stand down through term limits at the next election, Illyushin has long been seen as a potential contender. His expected candidacy in 2019, while serving as Mayor of Arvi, however never launched, instead, deciding to stay in Amar, he sought the governorship. That was almost a race he didn’t win – finding his party vulnerable from vote splitting by the Nationalists, which almost saw the state’s other favoured-son, Dimochka Yakushkin, secure the role. Winning by a much clearer margin in 2023, with the Nationalists off the ballot, Illyushin’s national ambitions have again been in the frame.
Several former advisors said, just a few weeks ago, that a second, formal, run for the presidency was “almost assured” – with the governor having thought to have assembled a campaign-ready team. Now, that looks much less certain, with Illyushin thought to instead be considering a third-term in Amar, in what would be his 18th year in Arvi since first being elected in 2007 – a decision those close to him say is potentially about his family, seeing a move to Niveri or Karasicena as ‘disruptive’.
His allies however say the governor will “come round” – fearing that the Unionist Party lacks another distinctive and compelling figure who can rally it ahead of the next election. Kamchetkan governor Philip Kirkiosma is said to have ‘waning’ interest after the party failed to breakthrough and win the legislative elections – having reportedly told a party staffer that he “has no interest in being a pen pusher” – fearing that any power the presidency had would be restrained by Prime Minister Serbin’s National Party in the Federal Assembly. Janoslav Csoňka is thought to be eyeing up another attempt at becoming Prime Minister, telling allies that “one last heave” can deliver a Unionist government. Party leader in name only, Bartek Bagdat, lacks internal support, while the President’s effective deputy, Council Leader Yulian Sharonov has been criticised as “weak”.
The shape of any campaign by Illyushin, should it emerge, however has long been a point of discussion. The governor has largely shunned his more radical edge which saw him win three terms as mayor of the country’s largest city, and as the incumbent leader in Amar he has rarely rocked the boat. Indeed, many of his own supporters have said they were disappointed with his record in office, with some even suggesting Csoňka was the more promising choice, and had replaced Illyushin as the “true” heir to the party’s future.
Illyushin himself has remained consistently silent on the issue publicly, refusing to be drawn when questioned, and avoiding discussion in interviews. A major sit-down with Jov Chaykovsky on The Big Interview planned for later this week however may give him less room to maneouver. Many of his closest friends and supporters will be watching with baited breath, to see if the governor may finally put the rumours to bed or give away a little more, if anything, about his future plans.
