The President and Prime Minister will meet alongside their respective teams at a political conference in Urnayt in the Isisny Islands at the end of the month. The three day planned summit will seek to “break the deadlock” created by the recent legislative elections, which has left Prime Minister Serbin’s party several seats short of a majority in the Assembly.
Despite having previously ruled out any “deal” with the Unionist Party, Serbin’s Centrist, Progressive, Conservationist Coalition will now try to secure a “way of working” and an agreed “legislative agenda” with the party – the first sign of a potential attempt at conciliation by the Prime Minister. Having spent several weeks speaking to several independent members of the Assembly, as well as the Nationalist Party, and contemplating a further potential legislative election, it is thought Serbin regards a “soft agreement” with the Unionists as the best way forward to continue governing. Private polling, commissioned by the Coalition, is thought to show that another election would almost certainly give the Unionists the eight seats they would need to form a government, and ensure that Serbin would have to leave office.
The conference is not the first such summit to be held, with similar talks taking place in 2011 between then Federal Council leader Tattar and recently appointed former Prime Minister Ludvig Fedorov. The two negotiated working with each other on a Federal Executive programme with support of President Lukyanov – including a controversial ‘veto’ for the Federal Council over legislation proposed by Fedorov’s Ministry. The decision to replicate these talks now is thought to be the brainchild of Artem Mishchenko, a former aide to Serbin and chief advisor to Fedorov, who has returned as his new Chief of Staff. The shake up in the Prime Minister’s team has come as he has apparently considered his options – and believing that negotiation is his most likely successful route to staying in power. Discussions will take place on several key issues, between leading members of both parties – with former Prime Minister Fedorov expected to play a role in supporting the negotiation although this is yet to be confirmed. Leading minister Yulia Schevchenko is expected to deputise for the Prime Minister, with Janoslav Csoňka and Buratiyan Assemblymember Satta Jovanovich taking a lead for the Unionists. An arrangement on housing, flood defences, education and potential membership of the GDF are all likely to feature in any legislative package.
Commentators have been enthusiastic about the potential of the discussions to bring a resolution to the situation caused by the recent election results, but some are concerned that the agreement could be heavily criticised by the Nationalists. “The fear is that this will be seen as some kind of ‘establishment stitch up’, and indeed, it was these same circumstances in 2011 that brought the Nationalists onto the political stage in 2013, creating the conditions for much of what we see today. Both Tattar and Serbin know this, but don’t see another way forward and I think they are hoping that given the Nationalists are at such a low point, they will have a bit of breathing space” – said broadcaster Alexander Tavorsky speaking on PTV yesterday. It is also understood that the Prime Minister is also keeping an ‘open line of communication’ with Nationalist deputy-leader Drakan Slivinski, who is seeking to oust former Assemblymember and current leader Alexei Sukhorukov from the party. Whether the talks will also discuss the democratic crisis caused by the vote-tampering scandal is not known, as well as whether it will deal with other controversial topics such as the final publication of the report into the 2020 New Year’s Day Border Bombings – the draft of which caused outrage just days before the latest elections, and causing significant embarrassment to the Prime Minister.
