The Progressive Centrists are on the verge of a long awaited boost after initial polling has suggested former Prime Minister Marina Yanaka could be within touching distance of President Artamova in a theoretical race for the presidency in 2015.
Yanaka, tipped by many to be the Progressive challenger to the incumbent Artamova, has yet to announce her intentions for the race which will conclude in November 2015 – however some of her closest allies, including former President Koruin Gruaman, have suggested that a Yanaka run can almost be assured. Ms Yanaka served as the nations first Prime Minister from 2003 until 2007, later serving as First Deputy Prime Minister from 2008 until being appointed Foreign Minister in 2011, serving under Prime Minister Ludvig Fedorov. Whilst she left government following the 2013 legislative elections and a radical shake-up of the Prime Minister’s front-line team, Ms Yanaka has remained a prominent member of the Progressive party within the Federal Council and has continued to be a visible and consistent performer for the party.
The poll commissioned for PTV this weekend, the nations leading news network, suggests that the President leads Ms Yanaka in a theoretical run-off 42% to 39% with 19% of voters undecided between the two runners. The results, the first to be conducted looking into the potential national challengers next year, are much closer than many commentators had predicted. Other candidates potentially tipped to run for the Progressive nomination have fallen behind Yanaka and Artamova as Governor Katrina Fischer of Béspura, widely considered a potential top-tier candidate for the Centrists, polls just 29% against the President whilst former Minister of Health and Education Lena Zilberman edges Fischer by 1%, polling 30% – some nine points behind Ms Yanaka.
The poll has consolidated Yanaka’s position as the frontrunner to take on President Artamova in the election although Centrist insiders have commented at being ‘surprised’ by the closeness of the race at this stage – where Gennadiy Artamova, elected in 2011, is widely expected to seek a historic second term as President. The former military commander won a convincing victory in the last election, defeating former President and Prime Minister Koruin Gruaman, a close friend and ally of Ms Yanaka.
Many commentators have regarded Artamova’s first term as a “stable” influence on Polascianan politics with key landmark bills on energy and education and the freezing of the defence budget managing to pass in a split landscape for Polascianan politics – where the President has been forced to work with a government from his opposing political party.
Artamova, elected as president on the Union Party nomination has successfully managed to work with Prime Minister Fedorov from the Polasciana Centrists to pass controversial parts of his agenda in what has been seen as a ‘successful’ cross-party relationship. Privately, the President is said to regard his Federal Council leader and protégé Ivan Tattar as “wholly” responsible for the strong adoption of his policies, leading to some suggestions that Artamova is attempting to install Tattar as the favourite to succeed him following a potential second term. However, Artamova’s term has been dogged and damaged by internal battles and in-fighting between Tattar and party leader Lazar Ulanov, with whom Artamova disagrees on the direction of much domestic and international policy. No President has ever won a second term and Artamova is thought to be “concentrating incredibly hard” on planning his second presidential race but close aides have leaked details of “fierce battles between Artamova and Ulanov” – with the President accused of attempting to brief against his party leader.
Ms Yanaka, by contrast, has managed to avoid fallout from her party’s own internal fighting – resisting calls to enter a leadership race early in 2013 to challenge Prime Minister Fedorov following dismay over his leadership by many in the party. Supporting her party leader throughout, Ms Yanaka was not rewarded for her loyalty when she was cast aside as Foreign Minister to make way for party high-flyer and ‘next generation’ star Asta Dahn, the former Education and Healthcare Minister who won many concessions from the President in implementing the flagship Education Bill in the lower-house.
Close friends of Yanaka have suggested the former Prime Minister was “deeply hurt” by Fedorov’s decision to remove her from Government but reject rumours that she turned down a “demotion” in the form of becoming Party Chairman. Her close ally Ida Korneev, who replaced her as First Deputy Prime Minister in 2011 said; “Marina is deeply devoted to the Centrist Government – she has worked tirelessly on the international stage to help support Ludvig’s [Fedorov] agenda on the continent. The suggestion that she would not serve her party, or her country, is deeply misleading. Marina has always served where she has been asked” leading to rumours that Fedorov had sacked his Foreign Minister.
In an exclusive interview with The Union this week, former Prime Minister Gruaman has commented that; “Marina knows that her country is deeply divided and needs someone to start talking about the future – people are fed up with the infighting coming from the Union Party. She has been a leading figure and knows the pressure it takes to succeed at this level of politics – I hope she runs, she would be an exciting choice for my party, I believe that – strongly. I think we will see her run. I can’t see why she wouldn’t at this stage.”
Whatever the challenges between now and next year, it is clear that from early polling Gennadiy Artamova will have his work cut out at winning a historic second term should Ms Yanaka stand against him, a race she described last year as “a matter for the voters.” Should she be thinking about putting her name forward for her party’s nomination, this poll should surely serve as a timely and encouraging boost for her plans.
