With the date set for October 23, there remains just five months left in the presidential election campaign.
Incumbent Pavel Lukyanov has ruled himself out of the race leaving the major parties each to field candidates in what has been suggested will be the closest contest yet. The third election of its kind, this year’s presidential battle is expected to be the largest in the nations history with more voters registered than ever before and a country ‘ready for change’.
Koruin Gruaman, who stood for the Centrists in 2003, won the first presidential race comfortably ahead of the then Social Unionist party – but since losing out to the Unitarian candidate Pavel Lukyanov in 2007, Gruaman has since had his eyes on reclaiming the crown of Polascianan politics. Leading his party to victory in the Legislative Elections in 2008 saw the Buratiyan-born politician returning to frontline politics as Prime Minister and leading the second Centrist government. But political infighting and a failure to grasp a working relationship with the president has left Gruaman’s government fighting for survival. Leading an unpopular government will not be the only headache for the former president who has found it difficult to find support for his candidacy amongst members of his own executive.
While both the United Nationalist Democrats and the Nationalists have selected their candidates, the communitarian-leaning Union Party is yet to do so.
Today, a spokesperson for the formal opposition said that there were two declared candidates for the nomination, and as such a primary contest would be held over the summer.
The Governor of Kamchetka, Stepan Michalvich, will face a run off vote with the leader of the Federal Council Gennadiy Artamova. Both men are highly respected within the party and have vast executive experience. Mr Michalvich was the party’s candidate against Koruin Gruaman in 2003 and a close ally of his, Alexander Ivanchin-Pisarev, stood in the 2007 contest. Mr Artamova was elected as the leader of the Union Party last year and replaced former Prime Minister Maksim Obelchenko, who announced last month that he would not be standing. While both candidates are seen as highly likely to launch a strong challenge against the Centrists, many analysts have suggested that Artamova’s strong links with President Lukyanov could become a major obstacle in his bid, and as such have installed Governor Michalvich as the favourite for the nomination.
The Union Party released a list of dates over June and early July which will see the two candidates facing each other in electoral challenges across the country. The first such race will be held on June 12 and will be a poll of all Union Party members and voters in the region of Dobryn in the state of Béspura. The region is the furthest east on the mainland. The region itself is held by the Polascianan Centrists in the lower-house and the state is also governed by the party.
Nearly 90,000 people in total will have a chance to decide between Mr Michalvich and Mr Artamova in the first such contest of its kind, with the contest culminating on July 17 when the party will formally announce its nominee for the presidential race. Whoever wins will join Tymur Rubin of the United Nationalist Democrats, Valeriya Dashkov of the Nationalist Party and the Centrist candidate – almost guaranteed to be Prime Minister Gruaman – in the national poll on October 23. The two top placing candidates will then face eachother in a run-off poll two weeks later on November 6 if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote.
With speculation largely over and the contest now underway, many pollsters are suggesting that the Union Party is likely to top the poll on October 23 if Stepan Michalvich wins the nomination, with Gruaman coming second. The result is expected to be much closer if Mr Artamova is the party’s nominee. The United Nationalist Democrats have suggested that they expect to be in the run-off poll. Other parties, including the Communitarian Workers Party are considering fielding candidates – the final deadline for nominees is July 19.
